FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - Is CO and Others Using Tragedy as an Excuse?
Old Sep 30, 2001 | 4:24 am
  #6  
SemiElite
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Central Coast, NSW, Australia & Scottsdale, AZ
Programs: UA Rif Raf (Defrocked 1K), CO Lead (Former Plat), QF Bronze
Posts: 1,304
NonRev99,

What makes you think that if no one will pay $400 for a ticket, they'll pay $500?

I think you're missing my point! I'm not suggesting that CO should expect to make a profit. Every business has slump periods in which it loses money. It's called the business cycle!

Agreed, current circumstances are extraordinary. But CO is in a very fortunate position in that they've had 26 quarters of profitability. They can weather one quarter of red ink, if they don't let it get out of control.

And how do they control their red ink? Simple, they cut their fares! If they're running 40% load factors, cut fares until they're running 80-85% again.

They're obviously not going to make money with those low fares. But hopefully they can earn enough revenue to minimize the red ink until Americans start flying again.

Hopefully, 26 quarters of profitability should carry them through one quarter of red ink, if they minimize their losses by raising load factors, even if it means temporarily cutting fares below cost.

It's the same principal the airlines use on flights to Europe during the winter months. They sell what they can in full fare business tickets. But that's not enough to justify the cost of flying the aircraft. So they fill the remainder of seats with pax who are buying below cost tickets, on the basis of $400 for a seat is better than $0 for an empty seat. Not a difficult concept!

Now I've heard that CO has overextended itself a bit with loans. If so, they need to refinance, or do whatever to bail themselves out.

We live in a capitalist society where businesses who get themselves into financial trouble are expected to work themselves out of it or suffer the consequences!
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