As a F+ member for 10 years now, I have seen the evolution in the upgrade likelyhood.
First of all the rules for upgrading have been formalized, and the order of upgrades takes into account not only the level in F+ program, but also (and mainly) the price of the ticket/ticket class. As mentioned above in this respect a H ticket is better than a V ticket.
I have usually been upgraded at the gate, as they define the number of upgraded once the number of no-shows is known.
I have once been upgraded at check-in in CDG, it was a summer flight to CCS, with a lot of tourists. And the check-in agent clearly said me I was upgraded because od the price of ticket (it was a B ticket).

But globally I would say the number of op-upgrades is reducing, and will reduce more as the NTC planes, wich have a lower percentage of Business seats, are more frequent.

Regarding the strategies I would say it is to be kind with the check-in agent, demanding upgrades is the worst option !