I am holding a seat to TLV for mid-December, return end of Dec. Flights are J9 C9 Y9 M9 H9... IO. Does anyone know what the chances are of upgrading on this flight?

Would I be better going YYZ-FRA-TLV on AC/LH and taking an upgrade YYZ-FRA and sitting in Y on FRA-TLV?

With no E+, the thoughts of sitting in the back are not fun. FYI I can go out either on the 15th or 16th (Thu or Fri). Anyone have any thoughts on which would be better in terms of upgrade chances (Thu or Fri)? Yeah I know it is very far away, but want to try and hedge my bets a bit.