Of the 18 segments I've flown this year on CO only one has been Express.
I'm 8 for 17 on upgradeable flights.
So, just about half the time. Not bad for lowly Silver. Several were battle ground, last minute ones. All short haul flights less than 2 hours. All on cheap advance purchase fares.
I've had 4 NW segments. All of them upgraded. Every segment had at least four empty seats in the F cabin.
By comparison, I'm 86% on United this year. Some of the ones I missed was because I opted not to upgrade for various reasons. I've flown 47 United/UAX/Ted segments. For some reason I've been flying a lot of United Express and Ted flights without an F cabin. But of the 29 segments with an F or Business cabin, I've been upgraded 25 times. I never use miles to upgrade. Always the complimentary upgrades that UA gives their elites.