Scrolling through all the posts in this thread -- I just don't get it. JFK-Manhattan has been $30 + tolls +tip for a really long time (since '97). It translates for me to be
approx $35-38 (depending on whether they take tri-borough).
Car services from city to JFK used to be $27 then moved to $29, now $34/35. Normally there is a $2 off coupon for off hours.
In a decade since I started using car-service for JFK/LGA/EWR I've never had them ever miss an appointment - whatever the time.
Flat rate from JFK to the city is a no brainer, since the dispatcher hands you the card with all the info about rates and tel. # in case you have a problem ;-0