My experience has been that transcons to EWR are
murder!!! On LAX or SNA to EWR transcons, I'm 0 for 3 under EUA, although I did get one LAX to EWR mileage upgrade on a redeye as part of an intl. BF upgrade.
OTOH, on my last two flights thru IAH (LAX-IAH-ORD-IAH-LAX and LAX-IAH-YYZ-IAH-LAX), I went 8 for 8. Sometimes a little tough out of IAH, but as a Gold, I can usually make the cut.
But EWR is
far worse for three reasons:
1. Being a transcon, many companies will pay for a FC ticket, since it's a 5 1/2 to 6 hr. flight. OTOH, on a 3 1/2 hr. LAX or SNA to IAH flight, most companies will insist on booking in Coach. Thus, with more tix purchased, fewer are left for upgrade.
2. As
the major center for road warriors, EWR has a huge number of Plats...even more than IAH! So any seats left are usually grabbed up before Golds and Silvers get a chance.
3. Generally, most elites don't bother with mileage upgrades on domestic flights, as they are relatively short and you can usually get a free upgrade under EUA. But, they will upgrade for intl. BizFirst, and west coast flyers will get the domestic leg upgraded with miles as it's included with the intl. BF upgrade. And EWR is the primary departure city for CO's European and HKG flights.
So, between the road warriors who buy the transcon tix, the mileage upgraders who get upgraded as part of an intl. BF trip to Europe or HKG, and all the Plats waiting for any left-overs, a lowly Silver or Gold doesn't have much chance.
If you fly through IAH or CLE, and stay away from Mon. morning or Friday afternoon flights, you have an excellent chance for an upgrade as a Gold, or even as a Silver, especially if you check ITN first, and plan accordingly.
But, unless you're a Plat, stay away from EWR transcons unless you simply can't avoid them. I booked a mileage run SNA-EWR-FLL-EWR-SNA, and couldn't avoid EWR. The outbound transcon, although on a Saturday morning, already has 11 of 12 FC seats filled...and we haven't even gotten to the Platinum 5 Day EUA window yet!!! But when you're getting over 7,000 status miles for $196, you put up with certain things!
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In Economy...no one can hear you scream!