I copied SWA's hedge strategy
Well, sort of. Southwest bought options to cap its fuel prices. I cannot buy options on air tickets for the next 10 years, but I can buy the profits on those tickets.
So I figured out my share of Southwest's revenue and I bought that fraction of the company. Actually, I only bought about half that much, leaving the other half for later purchase if the price decreases. So I am halfway hedged against increased ticket prices that do not correspond to costs.
Like other hedges, this one can fluctuate tremendously. That's disturbing if you forget that the original point was to nail down a portion of your costs. That is, if Southwest is flush, the fares I pay are likely to be high, and vice versa.
I've been considering making this move since 1999, but what convinced me was the combination of price stagnation in the stock and the recent dramatic jump in fares, which analysts seem not to have noticed yet. That last factor could make 2005 the year in which Southwest's profits hit the stratosphere as the rest of the industry is finally forced to raise fares to equal their costs.
One other important point: don't try this strategy with a legacy airline unless you are prepared to lose 100% of your investment when the company goes bankrupt. Besides, how can you hedge your next 10 years of travel with them when you don't know whether they will still exist? For these reasons, if you decide to take a flier, so to speak, you will get greater leverage on your "hedge" with a legacy airline than with a profitable carrier like Southwest.