Other factors affecting transcon service:

DL ran a big ad campaign last fall introducing transcons to NYC with special discounts on hotels, etc. I gather it bombed and DL is now running Song flights across country.

WN's fares have generally been higher across the board and the so-called $99 one-way anywhere fares are quite limited, with most routes going for at least $119 (more on peak travel days like FR/SU). With recent changes to Rapid Rewards, long-haul flyers will have even less incentive to choose WN (although AA's service levels in coach may soon fall below WN's).

UA has downsized service from a mix of 777/767/757/320s to mostly 757's with P.S. configurations that further reduce the # of seats normally found on a 757. UA has added flights since the 9/11 cutbacks but still is not offering nearly as many flights/seats as it did in 2000.

The only factor that I see keeping pressure on prices is JetBlue's growth which has expanded into SMF and increased flights at OAK, etc. but JetBlue has also raised fares and is less of a threat than WN and others because of its inferior mileage program. However, AA would be wise to enhance service (a la UA) as its LRTC coach product is inferior to JetBlue's (and UA's P.S. service).

So in sum, the # of seats being offered are down, the competition for the budget traveler which feeds on $200 fares is down (particularly at AA's main competitor, UA) and the fare competition seems to have abated, ergo AA can raise fares until the next price war breaks out.

It is amazing that the discount fares lasted so long, they have been long gone from the SFO/SJC-ORD routes which bottomed out @ $169 RT last year and have been rising ever since.