As an FYI, I was recently on a AA codeshare on a QF AKL-LAX flight. I had flown over from Rotorua and checked in about 12 hours early so that I could wander around Auckland without luggage. When I returned I escaped to the Business Class lounge. An individual came up to me and introduced himself as, "whomever from AA" and asked if I minded being upgraded to First from Business. When I got on the plane Business Class appeared to be packed. I can only assume that AA upgraded me due to my AAdvantage status so that should certainly increase your chances from HNL.