Originally Posted by
autdi
The authorized Leo constellation is to be about 7,700, on par with the 12,000 Starlink is authorized, but Starlink already has 10,000 in orbit compared to 250. At 50 a launch for easier math, to get to half the requested constellation, that's another 55 launches that are successful. Blue origin will be investigating for a while, and re-constructing for months. If the system works with just 1000 in orbit, that's still at least 15 launches before a system might be usable for business. Delta plans to install these to be used in 2028? Calling 2028 to mean end of December 2028, that's 30 months for at least 15 launches. The aircraft can be modified in that time, seems plausible, but what will they connect to, certainly not Leo unless they book a block of Falcon launches.
Yeah ... ~1000 satellites seems like it's
roughly the number needed for full planned Gen1 coverage. Adding more satellites beyond that is mainly a capacity play, not a coverage play (and Amazon Leo has a long ways to go before network congestion is their problem)
That said ... someone pointed out that Amazon doesn't plan to launch orbits for
polar coverage until well into the 2030s as part of Gen2 ... Gen1 won't work above ~56°N. Whereas Starlink already has polar coverage. So for long-haul routes to Asia and Europe ... airlines w/ Starlink will have an advantage for years. (But still TBD if Delta even installs Leo on their long-haul fleet or just sticks with Viasat for a while, which is slower but mostly covers polar routes)