FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - I still think Frontier will eventually go broke
Old May 7, 2026 | 7:26 am
  #61  
iahphx
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Originally Posted by aerosly
The analysts are all over the place about it.

Some are saying they're going to follow Spirit down the drain: Frontier Hoping to Avoid Fate of Budget Rival Spirit Airlines
https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/new...es/ar-AA22sXDt

While others are saying the Spirit collapse will actually bolster them: Frontier Airlines Forecasts Revenue Boost from Spirit Collapse
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/05/fron...-collapse.html

I think they're going to jack up prices because their price competitor is no longer there AND they can blame it on fuel, then they will be fine. Personally, I look at this as a good time to pick up some ULCC stock.
This one is a real wildcard. I've been following this industry for decades and, usually, airlines with unsuccessful business models muddle along for awhile and either go bankrupt or merge. I see no reason right now to think Frontier is different. And I don't think Frontier is a great candidate for merger, because they have no core market (like a hub) to transfer and I don't think anyone would really want their customer-fronting employee base, which is inferior to the major airlines (sorry, just stating what I've seen the past several years).

The business model that works best in America right now is to offer the perception of luxury -- while often only providing modest improvement -- and charge elites significantly more money for it. Voila! You get a profit margin. This is what all the major airlines are doing, and it's working. Frontier's problem is their customer base is the less affluent value shopper. If they raise prices, they will lose a percentage of their customers. That would be OK, but their business model is based on growth -- not shrinking to a smaller, sustainable base. They keep hiring new (aka cheaper) employees and do these sale/leaseback transactions on new aircraft to raise cash. So I'm not sure a higher fare model will work. We'll just have to see.
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