So I just booked with Iberia a redemption flight from HKG to LHR in F cabin, on Iberia Avios promotion sale with 30% off. The Cathay status says waitlisted and not confirmed, yet Iberia took the Avios and payment from me already. My little Ai friend, Claude, tells me that I should not expect this booking to be confirmed as based on his data and research, my chances are almost impossible, and I should make alternative arrangements.

Do you guys agree? and how long usually it takes to have it rejected or confirmed? Or and I wasting my time and energy, should I just cancel the booking and get my Avios back?