Fully respect your legal opinion and IANAL etc. but Regulation 12(7) gives the right to cancellation BEFORE the start of the package. So, my question is, given BA may hold their position up to right before the due departure of the holiday, at what point does reasonableness dictate the OP's right to cancel? Regardless of any ceasefires or empty promises from disempowered regional leaders the risk at the destination has dramatically changed since the time of booking. The customer would also like to book something else and making them wait until shortly before their holiday to do so will undoubtedly prove more expensive.