FlyerTalk Forums - View Single Post - LH Group supends TLV, AMM, BEY, EBL, DMM & DXB/DWC operations
Old Mar 2, 2026 | 2:44 am
  #158  
Leijona21
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Originally Posted by oliver2002
With the ME3 unable to operate their schedules and UA/AC facing considerable issues servicing India, the EU3 flights to a Asia are going out packed to the gills. Lets hope the fuel cost of detours is sufficiently covered by the higher load factors...
Depending on hedging, the impact can be much bigger than just the extra 2 hours in the current situation. Take a simple example. A long-haul widebody burns about 6 tons of fuel per hour. A normal 9-hour Europe–India flight burns about 54 tons (9 × 6). If rerouting adds 2 hours, total burn becomes 66 tons (11 × 6). That’s 12 extra tons, or roughly +22% more fuel. Now assume fuel just increases about +20% increase in price. If an airline is unhedged, both effects hit at the same time: +22% more fuel burned and +20% higher fuel price.
Total fuel cost per flight becomes roughly 1.22 × 1.20 = 1.46, so about +45–50% higher than before.

If the airline is fully hedged at the old price, then only the +22% volume increase applies. So while the route is only about 20% longer, the fuel bill can easily jump close to 50% in an unhedged scenario.
Hope I did the math roughly right (i know it is simplified)

PS: For LH "Up to 4% of exposure is hedged monthly for up to 24 months" - Not sure about the current numbers: With an 85% hedge ratio, a 20% fuel price spike does not translate into a 20% higher fuel bill. The immediate impact would be much smaller, unless disruptions materially change planned fuel consumption or persist long enough to roll into less-hedged future periods. If fuel price rises +20%, only 15% of the fuel volume is exposed, effective price increase on total fuel bill ≈ 0.15 × 20% = approx 3% impact (ignoring basis differences and option costs).

Last edited by Leijona21; Mar 2, 2026 at 2:50 am
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