Originally Posted by
Andriyko
I agree with you here, but in order to gauge improvement or success we need to know whether ex-status holders were replaced by other passengers, which we don't. My first inclination is that BA would not find it difficult to sell "cheap" business class tickets to premium leisure travellers who are not interested in status. AA is probably happy that I class on Transcons is no longer being used by BAEC TP runners as an additional sector on the ticket with no additional revenue for Joint Business. There are many unknowns, but if we assume that ex-status holders were predominantly flying on "cheap" fares because TPs were awarded based on the cabin, there is no reason to think that those seats won't sell themselves based on price. Just like any other airline attracts unaffiliated passengers for its cheapest tickets. So, if (and that's an if) the number of passengers and the mix of fares are the same, all it means that those on higher fares are getting status and those on the lower fares no longer do. I'd call it a wash rather than improvement or success.
I'm just an ignorant retired software engineer so don't have any knowledge of the rarefied atmosphere of economic thinking but my tired old brain can't figure that one out. Why were those TP runner tickets cheap? Wouldn't it be because they couldn't be sold at a higher price? And wouldn't that be related to demand at the time? So if non-TP runners are going to buy them now why wasn't there the demand from that cohort before? And if there was why were they cheap? In short my thesis credibility analyser function is returning false.