As per my recent post here , I believe the best strategy is to set up a seatspy alert for 2 F seats, wither for exactly the flight you are on, or for the days of travel (if flexible enough). I was lucky that I got both alert 4-5 days in advance of each flight and upgraded both legs but the "4 weeks in advance release" does not resonate with what I have been observing on busy routes.

I had also been monitoring cabin fill prior to the alert and in the first case it had been a completely unsold cabin prior to the alert, and only two seats occupied prior to the second alert for the return leg. In both cases, the plane was full.

Conversely, on my previous booking (flown last June 2025), before the change of availability and thus when first were released months in advance, even at T-355, we flew outbound to MEX in a virtually empty cabin, originally only 3 of us in first (inc. the two of us on the BAPP 241), plus someone that was brought forward after the first meal service.