Anecdotally and based entirely on speculation I would suggest family travel to warm southern spots represents most of the decline. Snowbirds tend to go for longer periods and are more likely to drive but flying for a week to Florida is easily replaced by a flight to Mexico or the Caribbean.

I'll be interested to see how full the stands are at Toronto Blue Jays spring training in March. I go every year and some of the people I went with last year who booked their trips before the fracas started won't be going this year.