The logic of who deserves what is interesting lol.

As for paid lounge members who rarely fly, or fly a ton, will they cancel their renewal it they get turned away? Absolutely.

Will a paid F pax or a Summit cardholder change their entire airline strategy over a waitlist? Not nearly as likely. There aren't that many nonstop options out there (and paid domestic F on some other domestic carriers isn't exactly appealing). And other airlines struggle with lounge overcrowding WAY worse than AS.

And yes, AS does have contractual agreements with oneworld and AA that can jeopardize their membership/partnership if they don't follow.