The program initially started measuring only the prior year's spend. Quite a while ago, however, they also started considering the average of either the last two or three years. It has not been publicly disclosed. One could argue that it appears the first cut is done strictly on last year spend and the second cut done when they are sure that all last year spend has posted and there may be a second pass averaging the last of a specific number of prior years.

Keep your expectations low, UA is quite good at matching low expectations. But I would not be surprised if you make it if all that spend is cash spend on UA only and you are not on specific corporate negotiated fares which don't allow accrual for GS.