My F upgrade cleared at F4 and just inside T-48 (Nov 8 ORD-HND)! It won't let me choose a seat which is a little annoying, but expertflyer also won't show seatmaps so I assume it has just been turned over to the airport by now and I can do it at OLCI. (Actually I'm not sure what that'll look like when I check in with AC - can they assign me a seat?)

I was first one on the waitlist (from end of July), and there were 3 people waitlisted as of yesterday. PP on a Z fare with no NH status, so that lends some mild anecdata to the idea that it might just be first come first serve.