IATA data from September shows a Global increase of 3.6% over 2024, however, the North American he North American market was still one of the softest in September, showing a slightly negative growth rate of -0.1%. Global airline capacity for the month was just ahead of passenger demand, showing 3.7% growth, while capacity growth in North America was the lowest of any region in the world at just 1.8%. According to a recent Bankrate survey, only 21% of American adults say they plan to fly or stay in a hotel during the holiday season, a 6% dip from 2024. TATL traffic was strong this summer and every airline was singing the same song…strong premium demand, which may or may not be sustainable, but the last place I will look for indications on the near and mid-term outlook is in a company’s earnings call. Those remind me of a dating profile where the company directs the narrative. And I can’t ever recall hearing an earnings call where the company said: things are great now but whoa…look out.

We can spend all day quoting stats from various sources back and forth. And yes, people use data like a drunk uses a lamppost, more for support than illumination.

With everything I am reading, I see a softening in the North American market and airlines are usually the ones who bear the brunt of a soft market. Canada is facing considerable uncertantity in the next few quarters.

AC is in a great position with a lot of metal they can easily park should a short term drop in demand occur. Long term, they will of course need more metal and have a strong and logical order book. But to get back to the question at hand, I see zero need for AC to pick up any additional used A320s.