Originally Posted by
hjohnson
I guess it depends. I’m not MM (about 160k short) but am SE+R. Virtually every flight I’ve been on this year, I have always been #1 on the upgrade list. Flights to Australia, New Zealand, Korea, Copenhagen, and Frankfurt, not to mention domestic. So while I don’t doubt that there were SEMs on the flight, they were pretty clearly booked into J already.

I'm just 75k (for another couple of months) and even further from MM. I've also barely missed an upgrade for the last few years. We didn't get them from PY YYZ-EDI, but did on the way back. I lost my upgrade YYZ-YUL to a complaining pilot, but other than that I can't think of an upgrade that I've missed in the last 3 years. I have generally booked comfort or PY (low) which I guess helps.
I remember waiting to exit the plane last year and the 3 people waiting with me were 1MM, 2MM and (sitting in PY) a 5MM. No idea why my upgrade cleared at the gate and his didn't!
Not looking forward to going back to 50k in January.