These days, ATF or otherwise, when it's not important exactly which hotel I sleep--let's say I need to be in Metro Area A after landing--I book AFTER wheels up. While travel insurance and status both can mitigate the risk, it's easier to just not have to deal with rebooking, hanging on the phone, filling out paperwork, etc. Obviously this won't work if you are headed to smaller areas or in a peak time, but for my DFW business trips, an overnight stop before another flight, etc., I now wait and book the lowest price in the hotel chain I want.