Which route has a higher likelihood of success? SFO MNL or TPE? Evening outbound, Morning Return

I'd like to visit MNL and CEB in Nov. I've heard MNL also a fairly "easy" upgrade.
Over the past two years, I've had good success with SFO-TPE and back. Booking first, then clearing 2-4weeks prior without ever seeing PZ>0.
Is this still the case?

Any trip to SE Asia, I've just been going through TPE but if MNL is a "easy" upgrade, I'll just do that instead. But I don't mind stopping buy TPE.
Since I need to book in advance of clearance, I'm trying to determine the best bet.