I'm struggling with the same thing. I'm going to have to run the numbers a lot more carefully as we get closer, but for starters I just tried roughing out how many base miles I'd lose with each option. With this year's travel, it looks like segment-based earning wouldn't hurt me as badly as miles-based earning, but both are big hits. Also note that the Crankyflier blog confirmed with AS that the mileage option will exclude class of service bonuses as well as 500-mile minimums, which reduces the value of the mileage option if you ever buy premium cabins or expensive last minute fares. My suspicion is that revenue-based earning may end up being the least worst option overall, which is what AS management presumably wants, and which is pretty disgusting after they assured us over and over again that mileage based earning was here to stay without mentioning the HUGE UGLY CAVEAT that they didn't mean actual, existing mileage based earning but a devalued mileage based earning that takes away key elements of the earning structure as it previously existed.