Spend related to loyalty expectations in H1 will *almost all* have been under the old rules, even though the rules changed on April Fools Day.
Only spend for travel booked for Q2 after the announcement for which loyalty programs might have been a consideration qualifies as the marginal interest from the changes. I think this is likely to be small beer. H2 25 and H1 26 will start to get more of an impression of the impact of the change, but even that won't be the end of the story.
From a company point of view it looks like they have just changed their target market for Avios. Instead of targetting UK and European customers who will actually use the benefits, they are going to rely on sales of Avios points to US CC where most will probably remain unused (much to the frustration of those collecting them).
Customers as individuals can make some spectacularly bad choices when it comes to cost\benefit analysis of their spend. But the Wisdom of Crowds eventually kicks in and if the program does not deliver benefit, people will stop using it. It just might take 24 months for that to all cycle through.
BR is unsure of investment in airlines, I get that. There's an argument against investing in almost anything.
Some people are almost inevitably going to take a bath on their AI and tech investments soon having not learnt lessons about tulips.
But IAG stock still hasn't reached it's pre pandemic levels, so I would suggest that its current pricing is not really a bubble, although I'm not expecting further miracles from it.