Originally Posted by bisonrav

On the face of things, it doesn't seem that the FFP has much of an effect either way, I agree, at least on the flying business.

However bear in mind these results cover H1 of which half was old rules BAEC, half was new rules with bonuses, and covers the peak holiday booking season. Part of it was affected by poor sentiment towards the US and then the conflicts in the Middle East. It's very difficult to draw conclusions, it needs the full year really to see the whole annual cycle. Many BA bookings appear to be being made anyway but credited to other programmes. On the cost side, 9.9% on employees says to me someone wanted to make sure it wasn't double digit in the accounts, and there will be a significant additional burden on UK based employees from the NI increases, so really this would be a massive worry as we proceed.

The key metric on BAC isn't really bookings though these are softer than the last period, but incremental revenue via the "capital lite" monetisation of the frequent flier program, as mentioned in the report. This has to come through very strongly for the scheme to be judged a success, and the 35% non flying line growth is interesting but has no visible means of support via BAC since there really isn't an earnings infrastructure outside flying (Amex is limited and came very late). So this line does possibly settle nerves until you ask yourself where it comes from exactly.

I wouldn't invest in any airline if I'm honest. It's very competitive, growth is structually constrained, the potential for geopolitical bumps is much higher than the potential for windfalls. Good luck to those who are in IAG.