Originally Posted by
Dawgfan6291
They asked and received DOT approval to move 7 weekly LAX-PEK frequencies to SEA-PVG pre-COVID but ended up not moving forward with SEA-PVG due to COVID. American also announced SEA-BLR at the same time. They also put AA metal on SEA-LHR for a couple of seasons then figured out the SEA long haul hub was as stupid as it sounded and gave up on all three.
But because of the COVID era wavers on China frequencies then still technically hold 7 weekly SEA-PVG,
Even if all of the PRC frequencies pre-COVID came back, AA wouldn't operate SEA-PVG. HAL might take a stab at it though. Anyway, US airlines now are using 48 of 50 frequencies. According to Moondog, if UA or DL say were to increase frequencies on their less than daily LAX-PRC ops at the moment, 25 weekly frequencies automatically kick back in. AA would likely seek to start DFW-PKX but that would be it for them, while UA and DL would go daily on LAX-PEK/PVG respectively and DL probably starts SEA-PKX but could opt for LAX-PKX instead if they are serious about the renewed focus on LAX, and either not start SEA-PKX or just do thrice weekly. I don't think AS/HAL are in a position yet to go after PRC slot frequencies.
Originally Posted by
Dawgfan6291
United has a massively better brand to and from China compared to DL/AA and is overall much larger across the pacific. Delta gets like 4% of its total revenue from TPAC opps. Thats with close partnerships and equity stakes in China Eastern and China Southern for DL/AA.
LAX-PEK is also a hub to hub route for United partner CA.
errr. Not saying you are wrong but United taking 3x weekly LAX-PEK got the US side to the max. I believe it is/was 50. Also pretty sure the Chinese side is at the max as well.
CTU isn't really slot equating as everything that isn't PEK/PKX, PVG and CAN are open skies. United is sitting on 28 weekly frequnicies to China in the form of ORD-PEK/PVG and EWR-PEK/PVG though. That said, what dormancy did/does Delta sit on from JFK?
and LAX-PVG. All 7 weekly.
FWIW Delta's dormant China routes are ATL-PVG(7), SEA-PKX (7), DTW-PKX(7) and LAX-PVG (4). I fully expect the US government to allow dormancy for ATL-PVG and United's ORD-PEK/PVG and EWR-PEK/PVG to remain dormant till Russian airspace opens. Not that I think anyone is going to be in a hurry to add much more capacity to China.
No, we are currently at 48 frequencies per week. We'd only hit 50 if DL or UA or combo of both increased LAX-PVG/PEK respectively. I think the real limit of US-PRC flying for the US3 would be about 70 flights a week and that's it. As long as Russian airspace is closed, no rush for DL/UA to have more frequencies. DTW-PEK prior to the pandemic was the weakest of HND/ICN/PEK/PVG and I figure Delta would want to operated to PKX from SEA/LAX or both before from the East Coast. (Not counting NGO here given the special circumstances on that flight and if there have been no pandemic, DL likely would have settled with thrice weekly A359 on the route instead of the A332 for more cargo and tickets to be sold upfront.) Special circumstances make DTW-PVG work. It was one of the final 747 flights and could be in line to be a A35K flight in the future.