Originally Posted by
steveholt
People spent a shocking percentage on their DL cards during a pandemic where there was no flying on the horizon for the vast majority of people an undetermined amount of time to come. I'm not sure where the evidence is that they do a poor job of predicting/forecasting credit card spend. It's very clear that they've reduced the benefits for spending (less exclusive clubs/clubs with waits, limited visits, increased spending requirements for status, elimination of MQD waiver, and far more miles/spend required for aspirational travel) and still managed to maintain a significant amount of spend on their cards by consumers.
Look at the 2023 devaluation and walk-back.
That was DL saying that the stress on their Club capacity, and to a lesser extent, swelling PM and DM ranks from CC users far exceeded their estimations.
They did a poor job of predicting spend from a cohort high-volume users determined to boost status to PM and DM using the cards. And this on top of rollover miles and CC spend (rather than MQD) determining status, which they fixed in 2024.
DL also has people who purchase an SC membership outright, and DM's who achieve status from BIS miles who could move that demand elsewhere. These people were the collateral damage from the 2023-4 overcrowding. DL doesn't want to lose these people.
They don't want to repeat 2023 again. Look for them to capture more $$ up front with the AF and keep benefits relatively constant. And if spending takes a downturn during a customer's card year, collecting a higher AF cushions that blow a bit.
Gamifying the process with a third tier card would be a bloggers delight with post after post of how to maximize the value and find the loopholes to "beat the house". The house always wins when you charge more admission and keep the game the same.