Hi dsa44 it's a bit of a crap shoot I'm afraid. I usually look at load as well as checking if a J reward seat is available via AerClubrewards. Those are good indicators that it should get approved. But, as you say, you may be stuck with the economy ticket only. I also only try to use the Avois (or Upgrade Cert for Plat/Conc) when the J ticket is expensive to maximize the feeling of a better redemption value. The sweet spot is an expensive J flight with a very cheap economy ticket and a lot of empty seats in Business