Originally Posted by
invisible
Basically, what are you saying is following - unless you cleared the upgrade at the moment of booking (by whatever means) chances of upgrade clearing later is quite slim.
Which on other hand puts whole purpose of PlusPoints for over-ocean flights into question....
A few years ago, I booked 100% of my flights (with great flexibility on my part) by finding space prior to booking.
For the past year or two, that practice has pretty much ended.
I think it highly depends on destination.
For Europe, I can usually find an upgrade on the return leg. So I'll book a trip and cross my fingers that the outbound leg clears. I've started booking separate tickets if connecting onto non-UA metal to give more flexibility in the event I do find upgrade availability, I can change the outbound while preserving the upgrade on my return. That has been working thus far.
Over the past year or so, I've noticed that flights to asia (mostly SFO-TPE and back and one IAD-HND. also had luck with SFO-ICN) have cleared 2-4weeks prior to departure pretty consistently up to as early as January.
Maybe things have changed, I don't know. I'm trying to goto ICN and HND in June. We'll see how things go
For the past few years 100% of my intl flights have cleared but that's because I will cancel my trip if it doesnt clear. I've only had to do that once so far.