Agreed. Although “a good offer” is dependent on exactly which card. For a Plat or Biz Plat 50k is a pretty good offer, for a no annual fee Blue Biz Plus or an Aspire card 50k is a rare wonderful offer.

Agreed that retention offers are unrelated to anniversary date, only related to minimum 13 months from previous retention offer although one has much less leverage and it’s easier for their computer to “call our bluff“ if it’s past 30 days of AF billing.

Agreed, there is ample evidence that retention offers, which are 100% computer algorithm generated without any human agent discretion, are in good part based on amount of spend, both on the individual card and overall with AmEx.