I think the problem is that IHG has to reimburse hotels the daily rate if occupancy is very high. And if you look at the likes of IC Osaka, Beppu, Tokyo, rates are COMPLETELY INSANE and these places sell out regularly on weekends or during high demand periods. I was just at sold-out IC Tokyo Bay (base room priced over $500 months prior) and IC Osaka (base rooms priced at $800 months in advanvce), and I'm inclined to say at these new points rates, IHG breaks even on busy dates, rather than making a killing. To be fair, who knows what the average room rate is at these hotels, considering that you have some corporate rates, cruise ship packages, convention rates, etc., but I'm still pretty sure you can't have 40-50k points rates at $800 properties unless those are newly opened and occupancy is low (and thus reimbursements are a mere pittance).

I've benefitted greatly from IHG's dynamic pricing over the past few years, from the initial round of 40k/night mistakes to the end-of-schedule anomaly that worked until recently. I've redeemed several million points at discounts of 60-80% compared to advance purchase rates. A big part of these savings were due to the 4th night free for Chase cardholders, and TBH I anticipate that there will still be modest deals going forward. Now, am I gonna pay 180k points a night for IC Osaka? Definitely not, and very likely not even if it comes down to 120k or so with 4th night free and creative booking techniques. But there will still be occasional opportunities. As I said in the original dynamic pricing thread 5 years ago, "there's zero chance that dynamic pricing will work out in our favor in the long run." But I have to say that these last few years (especially since the introduction of Diamond/Lounge Pass) have exceeded my wildest dreams.