I see less incentive for Amex than when the trial was run last year. The changes made have damaged the hold BAEC had on people. I dumped my BAPP a couple of months ago, it feels that dynamic Avios pricing is the inevitable next step, and consequently Avios have less appeal. TP appeal is further damaged for me personally by the certainty that Gold won’t be achieved again. Today some BAH double TP posted and I’m GGL for the first time, something I probably could have maintained for another year or two under the old system. Now I’m lost as a locked to the BA system flyer, and consequently the Amex has no appeal.

I’ll make Gold next year off of a couple of AA bookings made before the changes, but once we hit April 27 I’ll be a committed best price/timing/airport flyer, which I probably should always have been. I don’t think BA has yet scratched the surface of the damage these changes will cause, Amex playing hardball may be the very least of their problems. None of this will be helped by their focus on being a US airline in an era of brutal US inflation and the current President.

In terms of Amex I think the changes will disproportionately affect them as BAPP was a payment choice for the consumer rather than corporate flyer, and it’s those consumers that BAEC changes have impacted more.