I renewed early because I was running out of blank pages, and since it wasn't within a year of expiration I could not use the online system. I chose routine service.

1/27 application sent in the morning via priority mail to the Philadelphia center
1/30 passport tracking showed it as received, 45xx locator (Portsmouth, NH)
2/24 approval email notification
2/25 shipped notification with a USPS tracking number
2/25 a second approval email identical to the first
3/1 new passport card received (regular mail); also the tracking number finally becomes active in the USPS system
3/8 old docs received (regular mail)
3/12 after a hilarious tracking history involving the new passport book bouncing back and forth between the distribution center at IAD and a post office 20 miles away from me 4 times, I asked them to hold it so I could pick it up in person (see OMNI thread for details )