Originally Posted by
tcuhrc
1) UA hasn't gone dynamic yet, so there isn't 375k UA IAH-EZE floating around (realistically there is no UA IAH-EZE in J with a points redemption as of now - that could definitely change in two weeks, but I wouldn't bet on it regardless); I don't see how that would be anything other than AC's own dynamic pricing on AC; no Polaris space available on AC is not a result of AC dynamic pricing, it's a result of UA making way less I space available than it used to (which in this case is something like 6 years or 3 mileageplus devaluations ago)
2) with all due respect, 2017-18 is a very long time ago in all contexts, but Aeroplan has been bought back, reinvented, kind of improved and then devalued over half of that time span, so 60k in 2017-18 doesn't have that much contextual value for 2025
UA is much better at releasing wide open cabins as I space than AC is.
A couple weeks ago, I was going to be in BCN. I had found the only Europe-NA on AC that Saturday/Sunday with R space (FCO-YUL on the Sunday), and confirmed it. Unfortunately, my outbound turned to crap, so I cancelled the whole thing and booked points.
Not only was BCN-SFO available (which was literally the best option for me), but so was BCN to everywhere in the US. Sure, MWC was starting, so there was a lot of capacity added to bring people
to BCN. But the point is that a half-empty BCN-SFO J cabin (with no one on the upgrade list) had wide open I space.
I've seen AC flights that were J20 R0 I0 and wanted 200k points for a J seat. So instead they collected $0.50 from all the non-revs who filled the cabin.
I am legitimately "concerned" that I won't qualify for SE this year. Not worried about myself, mind you. Just concerned that Aeroplan is getting to a point that I'm just struggling to do anything other than spend my points on partners. Sure, I have FPs, and I'll fly AC to Canada. But we're at the point where I can regularly book LH F for less than AC J, with the result of the J cabins flying with empty seats.
I have no issue with dynamic pricing per se, but I'm not spending 200k points to fly one-way to Europe when I am 100% sure there will be an empty seat beside me.
I have a friend who just spent 400k round-trip to fly SFO-Europe-SFO in July. I'm waitlisted on a cash Latitude fare. I think the most likely outcome is that we both cancel and book LH F for 260k round-trip. Or UA J for whatever that costs.
I don't know how their accounting works, but I can't imagine forgoing the 400k points and cost of my $ fare, and instead getting a combined 520k redeemed (on LH F) is better for their bottom line.