Originally Posted by threeten

This is a bit theoretical, but suppose you were in the US and already could magically get top-tier status in one of the alliances (ow, *a, skyteam) from another alliance member. Which US-based frequent flyer program would you sign up for?

1) I'd care about upgrades (not available to alliance elites), better award mileage generation rates, priority (not available to alliance elites). lounges do not matter. baggage does not matter.
2) ~30 flights a year, maybe 40-50k miles (i end up doing lots of short haul). I would also get the airline's credit card and I would be able to put a decent amount of yearly spend on it (say 75k)
3) economy and occasionally business, more likely on international routes
4) I can choose class of service
5) domestic USA for 80% of the flights, 20% transpacific or transatlantic international travel
6) BUR, ONT, LAX, LGB, SNA (most preferred to least preferred). I feel like I rarely find myself attached to any carrier in this particular market, and it almost always depends on where I happen to need to fly.
7) Assume top-tier status in the corresponding alliance
8) Generally not the LCCs, as I prefer the ability to occasionally purchase business/first seats or hopefully receive occasional upgrades

I think one of the biggest parts of this question I'm kind of asking is this--which of the major airline programs (AA, UA, Delta, and maybe Alaska) is most likely to give upgrades to elites in their own mileage program (above and beyond alliance status)? I've been hearing that getting upgrades in many US frequent flyer programs, even at the uppermost tiers, is becoming increasingly rare.