Alex Cruz in 2018 hinted that this is the long term direction of the programme. Head for Points had an interview of Cruz basically saying

• avios will become spend based (check)
• status will become linked to spend (check)
• anything revenue based, fares, baggage, seat selection, should become linked to avios - ergo - spend. - we’re yet to see this.

however, there are some factors to consider which leads me to think we won’t see dynamic redemption availability until beginning of FY26 (01 April 2026) at the earliest, possibly FY27.

• fallout of the ba/ib club changes; they’ll likely want at least 6+ months of data on this before making another change. I personally think the changes were an effort in cost cutting (saying goodbye to leisure travellers; whilst extracting maximum revenue from corporate and government fliers).
• backend integration of the avios ecosystem (i.e any backend technical functionality will need to be fixed first, like the new BA website and app).
• aer lingus aerclub; whilst EI are unlilely to fully join oneworld, i suspect EI’s AerClub (Club AerClub?) will be next - a stated goal of iag group is to create a broadly equal x-IAG status, i suspect this will need to be done first.
• aligning all redemption charts and charges (presumably to BA’s with some local carve outs for particular routes)

then i suspect we will see dynamic redemption pricing, that being said, as many have said, as long as BA retains fixed pricing for some seats (8 Y and 4 J in short haul for instance) - it would be a win win for everyone. savvy avios earners would benefit for planning their redemptions early or snapping up availability off-peak or less popular routes.

This would continue to be called reward flight savers (possibly to BAC only), where extra seats can be unlocked for a dynamic avios price, which could also be gated only for bac/x-iag ruby and higher members.

another factor is how amex will continue to treat/issue 241 vouchers - will we see an avios ceiling for them? 200,000 avios? Virgin’s credit card voucher limited to 150,000 virgin points

finnair and qatar’s use of avios may continue to slow the whole process down though.

i also think iag will remain aware there needs to be a degree if “gamification”, af/klm’s director of loyalty also made the point if “irrational spend” - and the importance flying blue drivers people to “irrationallity spend” on af/klm