I can't find a thread on BA dynamic pricing for redemptions, but I think it's worth bringing up as a subject for specific discussion.

It's my firm belief that we'll see dynamic pricing this year. It's a very logical extension of the changes that are being made, and follows the cookie cutter implementation BA seem to be using as it's being introduced by numerous other airlines. BA execs have spoken about doing it for years. It also underlies IAG loyalty strategy, and IAG loyalty is the favourite child right now.

It becomes a fractional discounting mechanism. You earn on a spend based method on flights - and many of us are finding it's tough to earn on flying now, the high rollers less so probably. And then these are applied on a fixed rate discount basis up to 100% on new flights in the dynamic pricing model. You can be certain the effective per Avios will be way less than 1p per point.

Because Avios are relatively difficult to earn now (deliberately), you are forced into the IAG loyalty eco system, i.e. earning via credit card spend, buying directly or via the boost system, or grifting around the affiliate marketing subsystem and other offers, Wineflyer and so on. As a matter of fact, IAG Loyalty is really not much more than a hyped up Avios store now.

I think RFS will remain with a small number of seats available. I can't see any logic in extending RFS to long haul and then removing it. But this isn't certain.

So if you believe this, what do you do tactically?

My initial reaction is to stop accumulating Avios, because of the "when you're in a hole" principle. Unless there is a specific target in mind, it would be foolhardy to buy or boost in my opinion, because in the time it takes to get the Avios BA may well have changed the system. The changes last year show they are not to be trusted to do the right thing. I have dumped my BAPP (can always open a new one) and will be moving to Plat where I have more flexible MR points, I have disconnected auto convert on Nectar (I don't use Sainsbury's much), and the one cash flight I have booked will be credited to AA where I have exec platinum and in first and business anyway so I don't lose much beyond first dibs on the lobster starter.

I'm using Topcashback anyway for cashback, not the e-store. In extremis I'd use the e-store where there are discounts there I can't access any other way, but valuing Avios at 0.5p now. Cash becomes king in the new world.

This is based on speculation obviously, but so far the changes are following a predictible trajectory, so I think it's worth a bit of mitigation now rather than wailing and gnashing of teeth later.

Interested to know what other people think.