According to a source on another forum, UA's total LF on SFO-KIX between October 2023 and October 2024 was 65%. That is the second lowest LF for any US-Japan flight with DL's MSP-HND being lower. (If DL could move that flight it would have done so already as MSP does not have a local demand for TYO flying and NW's NRT hub shielded that fact. DL does a lot better on MSP-ICN with KE offering connections.) JAL operates LAX-KIX and it's LF was 70%, which fourth lowest for US-Japan flights. (UA's IAD-HND for that period was a paltry 67%.) JAL offers their most dense 789 configuration on LAX-KIX, with only 28 seats upfront and 21 in the middle, incidentally same as UA's 788s, as JAL struggles to sell upfront. JAL is making this flight daily this summer, likely because of the demand to KIX as more Americans are going to Japan now given the weak Yen and KIX serves as Kyoto's airport. UA is operating SFO-KIX less than daily this winter, switching up equipment around from a 788 to a 789 to a 772. Main difference between the three is how many seats upfront are being sold. UA is operating SFO-KIX with the 772 daily starting next month as that will begin the heavy season to KIX traffic.

US-Japan traffic, with US having more HND slots than any other country as a reward for using airspace from Yokota Air Base, is more TYO centric than it has ever been. DL's DTW-NGO, which was once NW operating a 744 on DTW-NGO-MNL in order to fill both cabins, was a pandemic casualty and is never coming back. NW had DTW-KIX-TPE but, with the DL merger, DL tried to move it to SEA-KIX but that flopped not just once but twice now. Hard to see DL returning to KIX. AA never had a chance with ORD-NGO as NW had a lock on that traffic. UA's SFO-NGO lasted longer, partly as UA had a SFO-NGO-TPE tag but once the Financial crisis hit, that went away and likely is not coming back. UA still flies to NGO via Air Mike but UA is scaling back where it is less than daily on GUM-NGO and I would wager that UA closes down NGO in the near future given the massive drop off in NGO-GUM traffic because of the weak Yen. UA's GUM problems are not too dissimilar than what DL had with HNL-Japan last decade. DL is hanging on for dear life on HNL-HND, with a 73% LF on a 216 seat 76K. A pretty stunning fall from where DL had in 2011/2012 in regards to that market. Yes, NH operating A388s does have something to do with that as UA's HNL-NRT was a pandemic casualty and HAL is existing HNL-NRT in a few months. Imagine that for the first time since NRT opened, there will not be a single HNL-NRT flight will be operated by an American carrier. And NW/UA were operating 747s on that route back in the day.

The inability of non-TYO US-Japan traffic to work outside of the two busiest airports for US-Japan traffic in the CONUS is pretty much an indictment on how the Japanese economy has fared over the past three decades compared to the US economy and a story of how Japan is evolving with an ageing population and well below replacement rate TFR. Once upon a time, Japan-US POS was much stronger on the Japanese side. In 1989, I think JAL was operating all business class 747 flights on JFK-NRT, which was how crazy wealthy Japan had gotten in the previous 40 years. Upon opening the McNamara Terminal at DTW, NW specifically installed Japanese signage throughout the terminal as NW was offering, at one point, over 1,600 ASMs a day on DTW-Japan. Now, the US POS is much stronger and Americans are taking their Asia trips to Japan instead of China for obvious reasons but, given how far Japan is from the CONUS and length of stay, TYO is a far better entry point than KIX is for Kyoto as tourists can always take the Shinkansen down to Kyoto from Tokyo. I think UA will be able to survive on SFO-KIX in conjunction with the ANA JV with adjustments made in the winter as Americans are much more likely to do the off-season in Europe rather than Asia ditto JAL on LAX-KIX as that is the largest O&D flight for Osaka in the CONUS. I suspect JAL could probably operate LAX-NGO on a less than weekly basis with a low density 788 but I am not sure those yields would make the flight profitable. Once again, NGO POS would be the bigger problem rather than the US side.