Originally Posted by brightstar100

I was not expressing faith in analysts - I have been a professional investor for 25 years, I know the strengths and weaknesses of "sell-side" research. Rather, by looking at analysts' research, it has become clear to me that IAG/BA has no room to disappoint given the narrative that IAG/BA have sold to the analyst community. To me, these changes feel like a high risk strategy, but - as I have already said - BA have more data and insight than me. And again, that is not to say that they will be ultimately be proven to be correct.

Someone travelling enough to get Gold or GGL appropriately under the old system is not undesirable. But BA has decided that they do not need/want to reward them in the same way that they previously did. They are prepared to take the risk that if some Golds becomes Silver, or GGLs to Gold, that customer will remain a customer spending the same/slightly less. In some cases, customers will be incentivised to spend more to maintain their current status, or to consolidate other spend (e.g. hotel/car hire spend to BA Holidays).

I have been a member of BAEC since 2003. I don't have any data to support this, but I suspect there are more Golds as a proportion of total members than their was in 2003. Four things certainly have contributed to this: (1) the removal of the reset to zero of tier points at the point of achieving a new status level, which made it harder to progress through tiers, (2) the increase in tier points per segment for premium flights, e.g. 120 to 140 for J, (3) BA Holidays double tier points, although that was no doubt an intentional strategy to establish as many customer relationships as possible with BAH ahead of this change, (4) the implementation of permanent lifetime tiers. Following all of these things, and no doubt other actions I have missed, BA may now feel that it has too many customers at higher tiers and now wishes to recalibrate its programme, seemingly to achieve fewer customers at higher tiers. It doesn't mean that someone properly/appropriately achieving Gold or GGL under the old system is undesirable, it just means that BA has determined that it wishes to spend less in benefits for them via the BAC. That is its strategy based on its analysis - I am not sure there is much more to say. And clearly, this is in the context of a strategy to consolidate much more spend via credit cards and on travel with themselves, like the major US carriers. I suspect this will be harder to achieve in the UK than the US.