Originally Posted by
demue
Thanks for the analysis. Seems only a select few properties have this "anomaly" these days.
Actually at my favorite points redemption places in Japan, I'm almost observing an inverted situation versus Phuo Quoc, when certain ICs and Indigos seem to load dream cash and points rates (assuming the points rates just follow the cash ones roughly) often starting out in the obligatory 80-120k points a night range.
Only a few months later do I start to see somewhat more realistic rates, or shall I rather say somewhat lower cash and points rates trickle in.(They are still way to high, but it's Japan and with the tourism boom showing no signs of mellowing out, it'll stay that way for a while I reckon).
For example, tracking the Indigo Karuizawa and initially rates were in the 90k JPY range far out which is preposterous, while 4-5 months out (different seasons and public holidays aside) they are in the still hefty but more bearable 40-50k JPY range, points rates follow accordingly. Actually on some days it costs more than IC Beppu around the same time period.
So I book flexible rates (cash or points) and keep checking and rebooking as needed, swapping points to cash or cash to points as well if one provides decent value like 0.6 US cents per point or higher (vs. a possible 0.5 US cents purchase price).
Rates in Japan are completely nuts these days (as are crowds in Kyoto and other places on the "must see" tourism circuit). I hold some reservations at IC Tokyo Bay for Sakura 2025 in the 20k points/night range. This was the last major hotel in Japan where the EOS "anomaly" worked. I mostly go off the beaten path in Japan these days, and I'm not picky about where I stay in Osaka and Tokyo -- IC Toyko Bay isn't my favorite, but when all IHG alternatives cost $550-800 a night (or 80-90k points), I'm quite happy to have a roof over my head for 20k points. The only one I'll have to think long and hard about is IC Osaka, which is one of my favorite hotels, but when it's priced at $800 or 90k points, the Righa suddenly looks like a pretty good alternative.
Your strategy of waiting for rates to drop is a good one in Japan. I think traditionally, hotels only opened up reservations some 6 months prior, and this is still reflected in prices at some places (which in years past has been a boon for BRGs -- book far out when the hotel's own rates are still astronomical, but foreign competitors already have normal rates loaded). I suspect the tourism boom also presents a pickle for IHG. Their prediction models are likely off, because current occupancy far exceeds historic rates. I have no detailed insights into how reimbursements to hotels work (apart from what is generally known -- low occupancy means minimal reimbursement, very high occupancy means the hotel gets reimbursed the daily rate), but I would guess this massive change in occupancy levels was one of the causes of the "anomaly." Higher occupancy also caused these increases in points we've seen across the board. With hotels in places like Tokyo frequently selling out, IHG has no option but to implement very unattractive points pricing, because they shell out significant amounts to hotels.
Originally Posted by
demue
Yes value can still be had, but it is certainly much more work these days in my book
. YMMV.
For me it's a hobby, which I very much enjoy. I spend a lot of time on this, and reap very nice benefits. But there's no doubt that for the average person who just wants to redeem points for a quick trip without too much effort, hotel programs are quickly losing their appeal.