Originally Posted by
jpdx
I've been extremely happy with my redemptions since the introduction of dynamic pricing, often paying just 20-30% of what cash rates would have been. The best deals -- e.g., IC Phu Quoc over NYE at 18k points/night (vs. $400), HI Munich during Oktoberfest at 20k points/night (vs. €380), IC Estoril in July under 20k points/night (vs. €450), Indigo Paris at 27k/night, IC Osaka during cherry blossom season at 36k points (vs. $800), IC Tokyo Bay at 20k points/night (vs. $580), etc. -- came from booking far out, at end-of schedule.
This trick no longer works at most properties.
...
Of course I also checked other hotels in the region to see whether they offered similar great end-of-schedule deals. The only one that had deals comparable to IC Phu Quoc was IC Sanur. Apart from that, all guaranteed-to-sell-out-for-NYE hotels I looked at had pricing in the $250-300 worth of points range, which likely still represents a discount compared to revenue rates they're likely to go for -- although as discussed upthread, much of this stems from the Chase 4NF discount, and really isn't the kind of "must buy" redemption deal I enjoyed the last few years.
Thanks for the analysis. Seems only a select few properties have this "anomaly" these days.
Actually at my favorite points redemption places in Japan, I'm almost observing an inverted situation versus Phuo Quoc, when certain ICs and Indigos seem to load dream cash and points rates (assuming the points rates just follow the cash ones roughly) often starting out in the obligatory 80-120k points a night range.
Only a few months later do I start to see somewhat more realistic rates, or shall I rather say somewhat lower cash and points rates trickle in.(They are still way to high, but it's Japan and with the tourism boom showing no signs of mellowing out, it'll stay that way for a while I reckon).
For example, tracking the Indigo Karuizawa and initially rates were in the 90k JPY range far out which is preposterous, while 4-5 months out (different seasons and public holidays aside) they are in the still hefty but more bearable 40-50k JPY range, points rates follow accordingly. Actually on some days it costs more than IC Beppu around the same time period.
So I book flexible rates (cash or points) and keep checking and rebooking as needed, swapping points to cash or cash to points as well if one provides decent value like 0.6 US cents per point or higher (vs. a possible 0.5 US cents purchase price).
Yes value can still be had, but it is certainly much more work these days in my book
. YMMV.