I've been extremely happy with my redemptions since the introduction of dynamic pricing, often paying just 20-30% of what cash rates would have been. The best deals -- e.g., IC Phu Quoc over NYE at 18k points/night (vs. $400), HI Munich during Oktoberfest at 20k points/night (vs. €380), IC Estoril in July under 20k points/night (vs. €450), Indigo Paris at 27k/night, IC Osaka during cherry blossom season at 36k points (vs. $800), IC Tokyo Bay at 20k points/night (vs. $580), etc. -- came from booking far out, at end-of schedule.

This trick no longer works at most properties. We had excellent stays in late December 2024 through early January 2025 at IC Phu Quoc and Regent Phu Quoc. I made these reservations in January 2024, when the schedule opened up, at a rate of 18.6k points/night at IC and 46k points/night at Regent. (All figures refer to 4 night reservations with Chase 4th night free, but before 10% points discount from the legacy Chase card). Cash rates at IC initially stood around $250 and Regent around $450, and for months fluctuated in that range. Points rates inched up to the 55k/night rate at IC and 90k at Regent. A few weeks prior to the stay, the IC was completely sold out, and Regent mostly sold out, with a few single nights available at $1200 (base room). Both hotels were crazy busy, with occupancy above 95%, so it stands to reason that IHG reimbursed the daily rate and lost mucho dinero on our reservations. We're very happy with the deals we got at both hotels, so naturally I checked rates daily to lock in similar deals for late 2025 - early 2026.

At Regent, things looked promising up until January 15th. Christmas 2025 dates were bookable at the pleasantly low rates we'd locked in the prior year. I was pretty sure I'd get another spectacular deal for NYE.

On January 16, things took a bad turn. Christmas dates increased approx. 20k points/night, and late December through early January to 90k/night.



The IC, in contrast, did not catch on until two days ago. I was able to make several reservations in late December through early January at rates of 18-20k points/night. Interestingly, they also had insanely low cash rates for that period ($140 non-refundable or $180 refundable for NYE).


Two days ago, revenue rates for dates surrounding NYE increased to the $400 range and points to this:



Of course I also checked other hotels in the region to see whether they offered similar great end-of-schedule deals. The only one that had deals comparable to IC Phu Quoc was IC Sanur. Apart from that, all guaranteed-to-sell-out-for-NYE hotels I looked at had pricing in the $250-300 worth of points range, which likely still represents a discount compared to revenue rates they're likely to go for -- although as discussed upthread, much of this stems from the Chase 4NF discount, and really isn't the kind of "must buy" redemption deal I enjoyed the last few years.