Originally Posted by
Fullmoon
Are you hoping JX(a self claimed luxury boutique airlines) to drop price to compete?
They already did drop prices to match BR/CI in some routes, especially those between TPE-SEAsia and TPE-SFO. Also, they sent an email today doing mileage promotion again on TPE-NA routes, though by no means cheap but better than their normal redemption rates.
K Chang originally claimed they want to be a boutique and price non-sensitive airline, it simply doesn't work on all the routes. It works for Japan (for the time being).
Originally Posted by
moondog
Second edit: I used to be bearish on Starlux, and remain skeptical because the idea of copying a sibling's airline is one of the dumbest business plan objectives I've ever seen, but I'm honestly starting to come around a bit as I watch things unfold. It's entirely possible that the market really was underserved to such a degree to permit a fresh entrant to come in and build up traction without bleeding oodles of cash. I still wouldn't invest in it myself, but the prospect of them lasting long enough to seriously checkmate EVA (at which point they could try to buy EVA) seems increasingly likely to me.
Third edit: When it becomes clear that they aren't getting into OneWorld, they can spin this as a positive (i.e.just like the CZ case, they're not going to get formally rejected, so it will be "their choice" + the alliances have been a net negative for BR and CI, and they, by contrast, are committed to strong/reliable bilateral partnerships, instead). Towards this end, I'd like to see them do something bigger with Alaska, the bird in the hand (i.e. a plan to aggressively compete in every Delta market that AS also serves one-stop to/from SEA, SFO, and LAX).
The market was not underserved and it will eventually be overserved. It was kept in a balance between BR/CI as CI doesn't mind to be #2 in the market but that model doesn't work anymore with JX in the mix. As of now it has already started to be a bloodbath in SEAsia and some west coast NA routes. With UA in the mix TPE-SFO has been hit the hardest and even peak periods the fare isn't brought up high enough (it's been decreasing every year) cause many passengers chose other airlines or simply avoid to travel during those months.
EVA revenue is way higher 2024 but the profit is the same as 2023. It will only get worse when the Taiwanese reach a point of equilibrium where they felt travel is enough. It's already happening on the NA routes. We will see how long the Japan routes can hold.
Alliance hasn't been great for CI cause Skyteam is really Delta, it's affiliates and others. I would say it's been okay for BR. While UA doesn't really work with them, at least they don't go toe on toe a fight.
Originally Posted by
CX HK
In your view, do you think there is any long term scenario where the 3 airlines could exist independently in Taiwan? K Chang and Glenn Chai seem to suggest that there is no need to consider mergers at all, given the increasing traffic (driven largely by connecting passengers to/from USA and ASEAN) and growing cargo business.
There is increasing traffic because the Chinese airlines almost don't exist on the pacific routes. The Chinese airlines use to be the cheapest options and not only do they no longer offer many options for cheap transits, they don't even have enough capacity to ferry the passengers between US and China. What do you think will happen when the Chinese put all the capacities they threw to Europe and Africa these days back to the US and Canada (I think they have reached a deal with Canada and most flights will resume this year).
Using 35F is hardly serious about cargo.