Thanks everyone for your feedback.
I plan to fly on Friday, 07th March arriving in the UK on 08th March. I am going to a football game in Manchester - kickoff is at 3pm. I need to get to Manchester, drop my bags at a hotel and head to Old Trafford and be there preferably around 2pm because of the crowds. There are two of us going.
Missing the connection is one thing. Missing the game with some fancy tickets is another.
My first flight arrives in MAN at 9.05am, this is the earliest possible departure to LHR from YYZ, second option arrives at 12.05pm. Everything else is too late.
The AC ticket to MAN is $300+ v/s just going to LHR. If there is a high possibility of missing the connection, specially given ACs OTP, might be best to pay a bit less and take the train/drive instead.
The train takes approx 3hrs incl connections.
The day after the game we fly to Europe.
The day before my trip to England I am flying TPE-YYZ so I cannot go a day earlier.
Might have to just book a flight and chance it. And if I miss the connection, rent a car though do not really want to drive after all that flying.

Would I have to claim my bag and recheck or will it go straight thru to MAN?