I am now basing all my upgrade guesses on my PWM-DCA-PWM legs on the AA upfare price. <$100 means that 90% likely I will clear. $100-$150 means a likely or near sellout. >$150 means it's already J1 and AA knows it's going to sell out.

Granted the typical upsell price is $61, and typically I make the upgrade. But I probably paid AA $1200 last year in upsells when I had no reason to (e.g., I paid the $61 but then on day of departure there were few if any pax on the upgrade list, indicating I would have cleared anyhow). The struggle is that I value the F seat at more than $61, but I also don't like paying $61 for something I'm darn certain to get for free.

Data points:
PWM-DCA today 2:24pm was $61 on Sunday despite being J3Y1, and was J0Y0 as of Monday. I cleared Tuesday (28 hours out)
DCA-PWM Saturday 8:17pm has been $61 all along. I cleared Tuesday (100 hours out)