Originally Posted by
Raffles
A key driver is whether people who have requalified for 25/26 but have zero chance of requlifying for 26/27 continue flying BA in 25/26 (because they get their status benefits) or if they defect now to try to build status elsewhere.
Since, for short haul at least, the obvious defections are to easyJet (no loyalty scheme) then I reckon BA will keep getting the business for 12 months and the drop off won't show YET.
BA Holidays will be the first sign of trouble I think. No point booking there (unless price etc works) for beyond 1st April. That's IAG Loyalty's problem though, not BAs, except to the extent BAH is buying up seats from BA.
I also think an indicator will be complaints volume. If they know they are using the last year of status and won’t be renewing or achieving lifetime status, I would imagine there will be less latitude in BA’s shortcomings and people will be far more vocal than they have been in the past.