So I'm back to thinking about getting this for P2 who closed last one in July 2023. The terms are so vague: "Any bonus associated with this offer may only be earned once. You may not be eligible for this offer if you currently have or previously had an account with us in this program. " And then in the further fine print:

"These bonuses and/or incentives are intended for applicants who are not and have not previously been American Airlines® AAdvantage® Aviator® Red Mastercard® cardmembers. You understand and agree that you may no longer be eligible for any bonuses and/or incentives in connection with a new American Airlines® AAdvantage® Aviator® Red Mastercard® Card Account after this Card Account is opened. If you receive a bonus or incentive for which you are not eligible due to your status as a current or former American Airlines® AAdvantage® Aviator® Red Mastercard® cardmember, we may revoke the bonus or incentive, or reduce your AAdvantage® miles by the amount of the bonus or incentive or charge your Card Account for the fair value of the bonus or incentive, at our sole discretion."

So are we all still working with the idea that if they approve you then you get the SUB? And if you're about 18 months out from closure that you are likely to get approved?