Not much has changed since the Q3 presentation and November investor day.

The US continues to lead because yields are strong and proximity allows for
better aircraft utilisation and reduces the stress on the RR engines.

Assuming that RR re-learns how to design and build and maintain engines promptly, then (limited, there’s still a cap on slots) will continue. It’s worth remembering that BA reopened BKK and JED going Eastwards, and hopefully KUL will begin in April.

I can’t see much else going on over in the East, especially not with a cooling down China (and a lot of dumping from its State-owned carriers). ICN won’t happen either, according to my crystal ball. Anything else over there is unfortunately too far out and not yielding enough. I’d love some upgauging on Japan, those two tiny 787s on the HND route are just full all winter. But the 350 doesn’t have a F cabin and the 77W has too much J, or so I hear. The 777-9 would be perfect but…

Looking elsewhere, the Middle East is what it is. Central Asia is unfortunately a black hole, I’m skeptical TBS will actually start. There were strong rumours of Kochi in Kerala, but it went nowhere.

In Latin America there’s a second daily to GRU that is going very well, and I do still hope that EZE will get a standalone flight, and SCL a daily service. The issue I understand is more to do with lack of planes than anything else.

That is what will hobble BA in 2025. The RR issue on the Trent 1000 and XWB will get worse before it gets better; up to 5 788/789s will be out of action this summer, I hear. The 779 is nowhere near certification, now it’s expected to arrive no earlier than mid 2026…